A third of our population lives below the poverty line, and a majority of them are deprived of basic services including access to clean water, sanitation, health, education and even sufficient food. A recent report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), presented its outlook for Pakistan for 2011, which paints a rather gloomy picture of our economy: It predicts that national output will pick up modestly this year, and will be accompanied by unrelenting inflation and a weakening external financial position. Its estimate of 3.7 per cent for the increase in GDP for 2012 is considerably lower than the government’s estimate of 4.5 per cent.
If truth be told, given those who have a hand in running this government, it comes as no surprise that the GDP forecast is grossly overrated. Nor is it surprising that no lessons were learnt from last year’s floods or any attempt at taking preemptive measures was taken for this year’s monsoon, knowing full well, that much of the would be generated by the agriculture sector. With almost 80 per cent of the crops destroyed or still under water, there seems little chance of meeting this goal.
The tragedy is not just that we are humiliated in the international forum for our poor policies and lackadaisical governance, or our lack of credibility, or the fact that Pakistan most likely will stop receiving loans in the future owing to its ever-increasing circular debt. No, the biggest tragedy of it all is that the poor suffer more and are rendered poorer. The bottom line of not meeting our annual GDP growth targets and ranking consistently low on numerous quality-of-life indicators implies that if anything, these people will be the first ones to go under, and the irony is that they are the ones most in need of help.
The ADB report brings to light the harsh realities of our short-term future policies in terms of setting more realistic targets and the government would do well to analyse and implement them. For Pakistan, it should be no irony that the ADB’s forecast of a dreary economy for the coming years, matches the plight of those who try and live off that economy.
The views expressed by the writer and the reader comments do not necassarily reflect the views and policies of the Express Tribune.
What a shame for chanters of equal system for all in pakistan…………..
This has been the state of affairs for over 30 years now. This country has been very good for the rich and they intend to keep it that way. As for the poor, well somehow they will muddle along. A very harsh structural change is needed and that looks like wishful thinking.
WB had once said every time Pakistan fails to grow at 6%, the poverty is going to increase as the economy will not be able to generate enough jobs to satisfy the people who are entering the job market that year. This was, what, I think, 5 years ago. How many 6% targets has Pakistan missed since then?
Everyday Pakistan heading towards becoming a North Korea. But, the problem here is North Korea’s population is many times smaller.
Increasingly India and Pakistan are becoming like South Korea and North Korea.
Realistic write up, any takers.
@Anoop – A third of our population lives below the poverty line, and a majority of them are deprived of basic services including access to clean water, sanitation, health, education and even sufficient food
This is equally true for India. And a third of our population equals to siix times the third of Pakistani population and twice that of entire Pakistani population. And do we know how many growth targets we have missed in last 30 years ?
@Raj: Hey! Raj now your being a spoil-sport. I like reading Anoop’s comments on the blogging field. He’s like the streaker running across the field waving an Indian flag and he does get your attention.
@Raj
Macroeconomic trends persist beyond lifetimes. Every time PK misses the growth rate and every time India beats it, the difference widens. It takes about 3-4 years for the difference to double!
@Raj:
We have not missed any growth targets. In fact we’ve improved on projections. UN MDG report says that India will halve it’s poverty by 2015 from a high of 51% in 1991 to 22%.
I think we are doing good to comment on a fellow neighbour’s woes.
While poverty in India is reducing the opposite is happening in Pakistan. Guys like Pervez can’t handle this coming from an Indian mouth.
@Anoop:
Anoop read my first comment. Clear your mind for a second and read your comments dispassionately, try (if possible) to put yourself into our shoes and then will you honestly be able to say that what you write is without malice or at least deliberately provocative.
Get a life man, there is enough hatred in this world as it is.
@Parvez:
Maybe the last part was a bit too much.
But, my point still stands. Prove me wrong if I have not stated facts, I will accept.
@Anoop:
My friend what you don’t seem to get is that you are right and we know these things.
It’s your aggression and bitterness that is not understood and is really not helpful.
You know what ?? I still like reading your comments and it’s only when you push a little too hard that I feel forced to respond.
@Parvez:
Fair enough.
@Anoop:
Appreciated.